GLOBAL INTEGRATION THROUGH INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
Divide and you fall
Digital Highway: The Shape of Things to Come
Year : 2001 Time : 7 A.M. Place : Kitchen
Event: I am sitting on my chair having a cup of coffee and at exactly 7.05 A.M. (pre-set time) my PCTV starts off with the latest from the world over on the topics (pre-selected) of my taste. On my way to office, receive an e-mail message through my palmtop. At the office I attend a bureau managers teleconference. At 11 A.M, I start interviewing the Prime Minister..... At night, with my wife, we dial up to watch Mughal-e-Azam, with digitized images of ourselves, myself in the role of Dilip Kumar playing the young Salim and my wife in Madhubala's playing Anarkali.
This is not the text of a sci-fi novel or fantasies galore of a bent mind but a peep at what the future holds, once the National/International Digital Highway gets going. This article discusses in detail the benefits, drawbacks, problems and other related questions about the digital highway...
We welcome you to the world of information superhighway. For the past one year, the so-called superhighway has become the hottest topic in media, exhibitions, seminars and ofcourse individuals. And everyday it is coming a bit close to your doorstep with news of some merger, acquisition, or alliance which will give a shape to the superhighway. TCI merges with regional phone company Bell Atlantic; Viacom and QVC fight over Paramount; hi-tech heavyweights like Microsoft and Intel have allianced with General Instruments. Everyone is interested to have a share in what is expected to be a multibillion-dollar market.
But what is this information superhighway, what will it mean to the common man, to a PC user? The answers to these questions are much varied. Right now, they vary from people to people. As of today, the highway could rightly be described as an elephant. If you tell six blind people to touch an elephant and describe it, you will get completely different views. Similarly, you are bound to get varied views regarding the highway. For some, the highway could be the biggest leap in human communications since Apollo 11, but for some it is simply hot air.
Theoretically, information superhighway will be a high-speed data network, linking virtually everyone. But the specifics about - how the highway will be built, what services will be on it, and how people will access it, what direction will it take, etc., - are still unclear. And there are a number of reasons for it's shifting appearance. Because the highway is not going to be one network but several, each with its own technology and uses.
For the users of PCs, the highway will just add E-mail connections to tens of millions of people and give access to sound and full-motion video, as well as text. But it has the potential which has never been seen before, of taking data where it has never gone before and that is, into the homes of millions of people who don't own PCs. People will be able to access it via "intelligent" devices that attach to the TV or phone line, or even via wireless gadgets that fit into the palm of one's hand.
The information traveling along this highway will also vary from 500 plus channels of cable programming to electronic newspapers to video phone services. No doubt, there is a likelihood of widespread participation from all angles. But the reality prods us to consider the negative aspect of this infrastructure. The basic question that arises is who is going to pay for this all? The MNCs building the highway are not going to pay for a universally accessible, fully switched network, in which any individual can communicate with anyone else. Though many PC users already have this kind of person to person access due to a host of online services. The question is, will the millions of non-PC users enjoy similar access using devices such as their TVs equipped with the necessary add ons?
All these radical changes have been the result of the PC technology.
Today's microprocessors are fully equipped to handle huge amounts of information - such as audio and video data - and that also at relatively low costs. Moreover, tremendous advances in the techniques of miniaturization have made it possible to squeeze a computer into almost any kind of device. At the same time analog data such as TV broadcasts, newspapers, phone calls are going digital, taking advantage of compression techniques that increase both the amount and the quality of information. On the other hand digital data, like plain ASCII text is being packed with multimedia capabilities, such as sound and full-motion video.
There's one problem, however, in the above scenario. And that is, if all this data is added to today's phone and cable networks, the result would be a massive traffic jam. Telephone networks can manage just two-way communications and are not equipped to handle this heavy a load. On the other hand coaxial cable systems, can pump in huge amounts of data in the living rooms, but their two-way capabilities are limited.
We have PCs, information services, cable TV, and switched telephone networks, all we lack is the ability to network all of this and make it broadband, two-way, ubiquitous, and affordable. It sounds very simple but in reality it is a tall order. Hence, the need for the creation of a national information infrastructure - or information superhighway -that can handle all kinds of digital data. Though part of the infrastructure already exists in the form of the Internet, wireless and fiber-optic networks, but building the rest of the superhighway will take several years and involve huge expenditures.
One should not get this idea that it all will get started in one go. Rather the consumers will never know about the massive construction efforts that would have gone in to built it. And there will be a gradual increase in the number and variety of cable channels and data services available in particular areas along with a host of devices available in the market that will allow the users to access these services.
For over a decade, PCs have been the only source to online information. Now the markets boast of a host of other gadgets - personal digital assistants (PDAs), screen-based phones, and "smart" cable boxes which will also be used to access digital data. Equipped with their own CPUs, operating systems, and unique user interfaces, these information oriented appliances promise to be cheaper and easier to use than the desktop PCs.
Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs)
As the name suggests, PDAs were basically introduced as electronic Day-Timers. But they are undergoing a metamorphosis and are turning into wireless communications devices that let the user to link up with a highway in the sky. The key to this transformation is a credit card sized communications module that plugs into the PCMCIA slot. The Card alerts the user to page signals and displays top news stories from News Agencies on the hand-held LCD screen. The user can even receive binary files and E-mail via the Internet.
A typical PDA's two-way capabilities are limited because it is based on pager technology. But technology evolves everyday and the latest PDAs are a combination of cellular phone and personal assistant. These units look like a normal cellular phone but sport an LCD between the receiver and the mouthpiece. Besides the cellular phone capabilities, these devices allow the user to send and receive faxes, and E-mail. One can tap on icons to call up the daily calendar and events book, use a stylus to make handwritten notes, or punch in letters on a touch-screen keyboard. In other words, the user can receive a fax document and fax the reply back - all while waiting on the kerb for a cab.
Smart Phones
Smart phones are devices that let the user call his friend, watch the latest news, check stock prices, and pay the bills using it's built-in-LCD and touchpad. These devices when are introduced in the market will be focussed on segments related to home, banking and shopping services.
While the first smart phones will feature a text-only data screen, subsequent models are expected to be introduced with capabilities for graphical color interfaces and full-motion video.
Set-tops
The appliances that have been getting the most attention are set-tops. These are the boxes that will sit on top of TVs and unscramble the cable signal. General Instruments, U.S.A., plans to introduce a set-top containing an Intel 386 microprocessor and an operating system designed by Microsoft around next year.
Most of these boxes will be purchased and distributed by the cable companies - whichever box is being used by the cable company in one area, the users in that area will have to use the same box. But eventually one would be able to buy one's own set-top in a consumer electronics shop. Such boxes are expected to offer 3-D graphics, access to specialized interactive services, and other advanced features.
Unlike standard cable boxes, which do little more than decode the cable feed, smart set-tops will come with built-in chips for receiving 500 or more digitally compressed channels of pay-per-view movies, home shopping shows, and interactive games. Built-in software will help the user navigate those channels and interact with programs.
PCs are undergoing a metamorphosis. The new models are being incorporated with more and more TV-like features. Last year, for example, Apple introduced the Macintosh TV - a midrange Mac with a built-in CD ROM-audio player and a cable-ready color TV. Users can work with numbers inside a spreadsheet, then hot key to CNN for a live news broadcast. Is this intermingling?
Regardless of which appliance is selected by an individual to access the network, the bottom line is that the hardware which is to be used must be much easier than the PCs. Because the consumers want ease of use and reliability. There are certain things that the PC users have learnt to live with like, - the battery of the portable running out after just 15 minutes of operation. But the people who buy a PDA are not going to put up with this kind of a deal. Another important feature is the interface design. Even Windows, credited by many as the sole media of making PCs easier to master, is far too complex for an average consumer. Consumers have no interest in learning the mechanics of the operating system - it has to be simply simple.
Though the superhighway boasts of an impressive potential but its path is very undulating and full of roadblocks and potholes. The first hurdle is the massive costs involved. The costs for linking all the networks via fiber-optic lines and providing high-speed computers for handling all the information is estimated at hundreds of billions of dollars. The point whether the U.S.A government should subsidize the costs is still being debated. But the best possible solution is that a project of this nature should be funded by all the nations of the world.
As the infrastructure is being built region by region, consumers in some parts of the country will have access to the highway long before others.
The next question to raise its head is content. As the network will have a massive capacity and there is little to fill it, cable operators, telephone companies, and other media conglomerates are scrambling to scoop up any existing programming which can be found. An example is Viacom's recent battle with QVC to buy Paramount as Paramount has a library of old movies and TV shows.
Then come the technological hurdles. There are no agreed-upon standards for compressing data, transmitting it, and making it compatible with the various appliances. For example, Radio Shack's set-top may not work with an interactive version of MTV. Compatibility issues are raising their heads like a multiheaded hydra and the battle for standards is hotting up everyday.
Other roadblocks involve issues of privacy and security. Network operators will need to prevent hackers from accessing credit card numbers and other personal information. One favorable method could be the removal of government restrictions on the use of data encryption because access to high quality cryptography is essential for individuals to protect their privacy on these network.
Finally, comes the problem of sifting through the tons and tons of information that is being generated. One needs to have tools like software "agents" that could be programmed to seek out the information that is needed and discard the rest or suggest new services based on preferences. But even these tools may not be enough.
In a lot of ways, the data superhighway already exists. But the maximum changes within the next 5 to 10 years will relate to the amount and type of data and how it can be transmitted. The PC users will have an access to more, and more diverse, information. Those related to DTP industry would be able to perform all that which was previously limited to big organizations like, sending massive data files to far-flung clients, conduct video telemeetings, or train employees sitting in front of a PC or TV. People are interested in the superhighway primarily because they take it as another way to get entertainment products into their homes. But the data highway's most profound impact would be on people who don't yet have any experience on the PCs and also on those PC users who do not have an access to Internet.
If the digital highway is built, these products will be as common as tape recorders are today in the market.
Face-to-Face Calls:
Fiber optic lines will be the arteries of the digital superhighway. And once these have been put in place, the data highway would be sending full-motion video from any one point to any other. The user could then make a face-to-face phone call and conduct video teleconferences.
Biggest On-line Library ever
The user will have online access to vast amounts of information, whether it's stored in the local library, a specialized technical database in MIT, or the Library of Congress.
News on Preselected Topics
An electronic newspaper would be delivered to the computer or TV screen, containing news and video clips on subjects that have been pre-selected by the user.
Electronic schools
It would be possible to have schools without any walls as electronic classes would make it possible for individuals to pursue lifelong education and for businesses to provide low-cost employee training.
Always On
As the 500 plus channels start beaming into the living rooms of the users, there will be round-the-clock programmes like movies, concerts, sporting events, and reruns of top-rated TV shows.
Games Sessions:
Video game subscription services will deliver whatever game you want at your door. There will also be games where you can have multiple players across the country.
Interactive Advertising
Advertising will be more life-like with your active participation in the product that you want. Suppose you are watching a commercial for Ferrari, you would be getting all the information about the car by just clicking a button or you could set up an appointment with the dealer for a test drive.
The essentials
Just press the button on the remote or keyboard and enter an ID number, your shopping, banking, and other transactions would be over.Other Places to go:
